TVPlus for Dummies

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VoodooMike
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TVPlus for Dummies

Postby VoodooMike » 08 March 2016, 09:33

What is TVPlus?

TVPlus is an augmented version of TV (Team Value) designed to be used in open matchmaking environments. The goal behind TVPlus is to, in conjunction with a few other modifications, solve the majority of issues that such environments have suffered since being introduced.

Does it work?

To answer that question lets engage in a thought experiment.

Imagine two coaches, Bob and John. Bob is an average coach while John is an excellent coach. We assume that if we gave Bob and John identical teams, John would beat Bob more often than he'd lose.

Bob's team, however, is TV 800 Goblins.. while John's team is TV 3000 Chaos. Now we know that John is going to kick Bob's ass almost every time those two teams play each other. Even with 2.2 million gold in inducements, Bob is almost certainly toast.

Here's the question: if we gave Bob infinite inducement gold, and we removed inducement limits (eg, max 2 star players, max 1 wizard, etc) do we think that with infinite inducements his 800TV Goblin team can beat John's TV3000 Chaos team? Unlimited wizards alone would do the trick, we assume.

Now, if no inducements is a practically guaranteed loss for Bob, and infinite inducements is a practically guaranteed win for Bob, then we know for a fact that there exists a point somewhere between 0 and infinity where Bob gets enough inducements to make a match between his 800TV Goblins, as a less skilled coach and the superior coach John's 3000TV Chaos team a match in which both coaches are challenged, and the outcome is hard to predict.

That's what TVPlus is about. Finding that point where any match between any two teams is one that challenges both coaches and doesn't give either team a distinct advantage over the other.

Ok, HOW does it work?

TVPlus combines TV, which is a mediocre gauge of a team's mechanical strength.. with a performance based measure that converts a team's success (or failure) into "effective TV" for that team, positive or negative. The exact formula is:

TVPlus = TV + (50 x (wins-losses))

Pretty simple, right?

Lets keep using Bob and John and their teams to help understand how TVPlus accomplishes what it sets out to accomplish. For ease of discussion, lets pretend their teams enter into our little world just the way we described them, but without any past record, such that their TVPlus rating begins exactly the same as their TV. In a real environment people don't play the same opponent over and over, but in our theoretical design they will.

Lets imagine that the amount of inducements needed to make the match "fair" is... 4 million gold. That's how much inducement gold it takes to compensate for the 2200 TV difference, and the fact that goblins are a tier 3 team vs tier 1 chaos, and the fact that Bob is an inferior coach to John.

At the start, Bob's Goblins TVPlus rating is 800, and John's Chaos TVPlus rating is 3000. John squarely kicks Bob's ass, as we predicted, and as would happen in a regular TV matched environment.

They play again... this time Bob's TVPlus rating is 750 and John's is 3050... their teams have not changed, only their TVPlus rating. Now we're up to 2.3 million gold for inducements. Bob gets trounced again.

Then its 700 vs 3100.... then 650 vs 3150... and so on. The TVPlus distance between the two teams keeps increasing until we start getting close to that 4 million gold worth of inducements mark... the closer we get to that point, the less the match is a foregone conclusion. The closer we get to that point, the more likely Bob is to win. As we get very close to it we run into more draws and even some times when Bob wins because the dice love him (or hate john) or even because Bob makes a particularly smart play or John makes a stupid mistake. The two teams TVPlus ratings start to stabilize... why? Because they're approaching accuracy. We're getting close to the point where the TVPlus ratings for each team represent that team's genuine effective TV.

Matchmaking is more than Bob and John, though.

Yes, it is.. but that's ok! Every match a team plays in a TVPlus environment is a match in which their team and coaching skill is matched against another team and coaching skill, and their TVPlus ratings get pushed higher or lower based on whether they end up being a better coach+team than the other coach+team. If they win/lose due to merit, then the change of TVPlus rating is appropriate. If they win/lose due to luck, the change in TVPlus rating will be temporary fluctuation, and it'll move back in the right direction due to merit in later matches.

The entire environment is in constant flux and flow, like a body of water. Everyone's TVPlus rating fluctuates, but overall they move toward the appropriate number for them.

So what else is required?

You might have noticed at the start that I said TVPlus is meant to be used in conjunction with other modifications. It's important we talk about those because without them TVPlus doesn't do what we want it to do.

First, TVPlus requires that we not use the limits on individual inducements. That means we have to remove the limit of 2 star players, of 1 wizard, of 3 bribes, of 2 apothecaries, and so on. With those limits there's a limit on the amount of useful inducements that a team can ever have, and that limit may be less than the amount needed to make a match fair. It needs to extend into the infinite to be guaranteed to work.

Second, the "wins-losses" portion of the TVPlus equation cannot include early concessions. The wins and losses have to be actual wins and losses not arbitrary outcomes. This is especially important if the environment will NOT be rez based, as it would allow griefers to deliberately concede themselves into a terrible TVPlus rating, and then use those massive inducements to permanently wreck teams for the sake of wrecking them.

Third, if the environment is going to have rankings, those rankings have to be done by comparing a team's rating with the rating of other teams of the same roster... not just by comparing everyone's TVPlus rating to one another. There's a good mathematical way to create an accurate ranking system, but its a bit complicated (a subject for another post).. but TVPlus alone is just as bad as current rankings, and would put better rosters above lesser rosters, even if they're worse general teams played by worse coaches.

Anything else?

Though it is a matter of contested opinion, I believe TVPlus should be done in a rez environment - that is to say, injuries and death should not carry over between matches. Inequality of attrition is one of the major problems in open play environments across a long timeline, and it is a problem that is not sufficiently addressed by TVPlus alone.

Is TVPlus vulnerable to griefers? Min/maxers?

Because min/maxing is based on exploiting TV's inaccurate measure of a team's strength it does not apply to TVPlus. Even if you are a master of TV efficiency, winning matches will increase your TVPlus rating over time. Min/maxing will not help you get a better TVPlus rating, though TV efficiency is never a bad idea!

In terms of griefing, it really depends on how the environment is implemented. As stated above, concessions should not be counted as wins or losses, at least not when the concession happens early in a match. If early/trivial concessions are counted as wins and losses then yes, griefers can concede to create large TVPlus advantages with the goal of crushing opponents rather than winning.

Even if concessions are not counted, in a non-rez environment there is a possibility that someone could play full games with the intention of losing to accomplish the same outcome, and then use those losses to spend time ripping up other teams. In a rez environment there's no way to wreck other people's teams, so those attempted griefers could, at worst, create the occasional stupid match that has no lasting effect on their targets.

Isn't it wrong that I might lose to a worse coach using a worse team?

No, actually. Under TVPlus how good you and your team are is reflected by your TVPlus rating rather than whether you win a given match. In fact, if you're winning more games than you're losing you're probably not being challenged by the pool of opponents. Yes, its possible your opponent's crap team will be compensated for the fact that you're an excellent coach... to the point that if they play well (for them) and you play lazy (for you) you may well lose to an inferior everything. Don't play lazy. Play as hard as you can every game, because under TVPlus, there's no phoning it in.

Some people view this as being "punished" for being a good coach and building a good team, but what does that imply about their idea of reward? Are you supposed to be "rewarded" with easy wins? Is that what you want from a game - less challenge over time? If so, then yes, TVPlus is going to steal away the reward of trivializing the game.

On the other hand hard wins make you a better coach over time than easy wins. Learning to face new and different opposition makes you a better player of a game.

I have more questions and concerns!

So voice them. I'm not the only person who can answer your questions on the topic, in fact, but I'm open to rational discussion on TVPlus and associated environment stuff.
Friendly Reminder: Correlation does not equal Causation - tattoo it on the inside of your eyelids if it'll help.

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dragonwolf
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Re: TVPlus for Dummies

Postby dragonwolf » 08 March 2016, 13:12

First thank you for taking the time to explain all above tv++

Then let me ask the first questions, hopefully i won't sounds to stupid.

-With a swarm of block team at low tv (dwarves and soon norse) how do you think the environment will adjust the tv++ if a lot coach react while they did in BB1 , by conceding or disconnecting as soon as they get paired too often vs the same bashy race?

-Does the tv++ take into account your skill over all your matches , idependently of the team you are playing (win loss ratio as a BB coach ) or does it only takes into account the win loss ratio of the particular team / race you are playing with? For example if you love dark elves and play with 5 different teams , does it summarize your over all coach ability to add to make the tv++ or only the exclusive w/l ratio of each dae team you are playing?

- finaly a pure rethoric question , is there a difference between tv plus and tv++?
Last edited by dragonwolf on 08 March 2016, 13:14, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: TVPlus for Dummies

Postby twitch/the_sage_bb » 08 March 2016, 13:13

Good post, thank you. The devil is in the details, it seems.

The main problem, as I see it, is just how concessions are treated. The answer to that will be a huge factor in this, but its treatment within TV++ alone cannot solve the problem. Consider these two scenarios:

- If you do not include early concessions (as you propose they should not be), you're effectively allowing all coaches to 'opt out' of any matchup they don't like (AV9 vs claw, dodge vs tackle, etc) by conceding early enough (pre-game, after losing the toss, or after making LoS blocks). This would result in inflated TV+ rankings for pickers (like zons in FUMBBL ranked can reach ridiculous win %).

If you do include early concessions, you allow griefing, as specified in the post (and I would expect a lot of it, based on the current COL climate).

Between the two scenarios outlined above, the only way I could see either of them work is if very strict anti-concession rules are implemented and enforced league-wide. I sincerely hope Cyanide will do this for the COL.

You may say it should be applied to non-progression, but with Cyanide's adoption of (some variant of) TV++, we're moving from theory to application, and the COL is the main proving ground (as most private leagues do not use random MM at all).
-Does the tv++ take into account your skill over all your matches , idependently of the team you are playing (win loss ratio as a BB coach ) or does it only takes into account the win loss ratio of the particular team / race you are playing with? For example if you love dark elves and play with 5 different teams , does it summarize your over all coach ability to add to make the tv++ or only the exclusive w/l ratio of each dae team you are playing?
As I understand it, it's per team, so you could get a great coach win record by remaking a team every game. It would also be meaningless.
Last edited by twitch/the_sage_bb on 08 March 2016, 14:35, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: TVPlus for Dummies

Postby dragonwolf » 08 March 2016, 13:26


Between the two scenarios outlined above, the only way I could see either of them work is if very strict anti-concession rules are implemented and enforced league-wide. I sincerely hope Cyanide will do this for the COL.
What is COL?
I m not to keen in strict anticoncession. If i meet team that are here to destroy and have no intention to play to win , or i meet abuse during thematch , i m quite happy and unshamefull about walking away , and frankly i would not care about my TV whatsoever. The only time i care about my win ratio is in competition , but it usually defeat that i try to avoid lol

-Does the tv++ take into account your skill over all your matches , idependently of the team you are playing (win loss ratio as a BB coach ) or does it only takes into account the win loss ratio of the particular team / race you are playing with? For example if you love dark elves and play with 5 different teams , does it summarize your over all coach ability to add to make the tv++ or only the exclusive w/l ratio of each dae team you are playing?
As I understand it, it's per team, so you could get a great coach win record by remaking a team every game. It would also be meaningless.
at the same time , some coach can be excellent with some races and really crap with other. Flatening all their W/L without comparing wich team , and vs who they played would not be fair either and would , in my opinion , have no sense. You play ogre you do not expect to have a massive positive Win ratio and if you are the best with amazon for example , then it would automaticaly drop your tv++ as you would accumulate losses with the ogre . You can see an exploit right here. If it is applied per race you are reducing that effect . May be the way is to start a tv++ from 5 game effectively played per team to start evaluating their real level (i gave a random number )

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Re: TVPlus for Dummies

Postby - Karma - » 08 March 2016, 13:49

This is an excellent post that I think is much easier for people (admittedly like me) to follow as an introduction to TVPlus.

Regardless of our past interactions, as mentioned in the other thread I've always respected your work on this and for what it's worth I really wish Cyanide would have worked with you in particular when thinking of instituting a system like this.

Fingers crossed it isn't a complete muck up and that people take the time to understand why their 1300TV 10-0-0 team might be getting matched up with a 2000TV 25-30-10 team. Cyanide had better figure out a way to display why teams were matched up the way they were so people don't lose their minds when the aren't receiving any inducements - assuming it works close to that.

Mind you, I still feel like without dode's suggestion of a que window to get better matchups we're still going to be horribly subjected to a matchmaking system that prioritizes whomever happens to be spinning at the moment rather than appropriate matchups. Just at least with TVPlus maybe the games won't be so outlandish.

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Re: TVPlus for Dummies

Postby twitch/the_sage_bb » 08 March 2016, 14:37

Between the two scenarios outlined above, the only way I could see either of them work is if very strict anti-concession rules are implemented and enforced league-wide. I sincerely hope Cyanide will do this for the COL.
What is COL?
COL is the cabalvision open league, formerly known as NAF. It's the biggest place for random matchups, and the place that would stand to benefit most from an improvement in matchmaking.
I m not to keen in strict anticoncession. If i meet team that are here to destroy and have no intention to play to win , or i meet abuse during thematch , i m quite happy and unshamefull about walking away , and frankly i would not care about my TV whatsoever. The only time i care about my win ratio is in competition , but it usually defeat that i try to avoid lol
See, and that's a problem for TV++. If you don't care about winning or dropping matches before they begin, the base assumptions underlying the system do not hold.
-Does the tv++ take into account your skill over all your matches , idependently of the team you are playing (win loss ratio as a BB coach ) or does it only takes into account the win loss ratio of the particular team / race you are playing with? For example if you love dark elves and play with 5 different teams , does it summarize your over all coach ability to add to make the tv++ or only the exclusive w/l ratio of each dae team you are playing?
As I understand it, it's per team, so you could get a great coach win record by remaking a team every game. It would also be meaningless.
at the same time , some coach can be excellent with some races and really crap with other. Flatening all their W/L without comparing wich team , and vs who they played would not be fair either and would , in my opinion , have no sense. You play ogre you do not expect to have a massive positive Win ratio and if you are the best with amazon for example , then it would automaticaly drop your tv++ as you would accumulate losses with the ogre . You can see an exploit right here. If it is applied per race you are reducing that effect . May be the way is to start a tv++ from 5 game effectively played per team to start evaluating their real level (i gave a random number )
Exactly, which is why it's per team, not per coach. This is not a problem?
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Re: TVPlus for Dummies

Postby Dreamerbg » 08 March 2016, 14:54

My question about this is:

Why it calculates Wins - Losses and not just giving "TV points" but different number depending on your match results. Is it worse?( Like wins give you 50TV , draws 30TV , loses 10 TV).
In the way I am thinking of it having 10-0-0 and 20-10 are 2 different things which imo will be more balanced.
Am i wrong? Pls explain it to me where.

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Re: TVPlus for Dummies

Postby VoodooMike » 08 March 2016, 15:06

With a swarm of block team at low tv (dwarves and soon norse) how do you think the environment will adjust the tv++ if a lot coach react while they did in BB1 , by conceding or disconnecting as soon as they get paired too often vs the same bashy race?
Concession shouldn't alter TVPlus rating, and rankings should not be done on pure TVPlus rating. As such, the environment should not adjust at all based on what you're talking about. TVPlus is about making fair matches, it is not about creating an accurate ranking based on TVPlus... ranking is a separate thing (which isnt hard to do, it just has to be a different formula).
finaly a pure rethoric question , is there a difference between tv plus and tv++?
No. TVPlus is TV++ from the blog entry. I use the term "TVPlus" instead of "TV++" because the latter cannot be easily searched on in forums or google.
If you do not include early concessions (as you propose they should not be), you're effectively allowing all coaches to 'opt out' of any matchup they don't like (AV9 vs claw, dodge vs tackle, etc) by conceding early enough (pre-game, after losing the toss, or after making LoS blocks). This would result in inflated TV+ rankings for pickers (like zons in FUMBBL ranked can reach ridiculous win %).
This is not a TVPlus issue, this is a ranking issue. An inflated TVPlus rating, as you say, is only a problem if we're ranking by pure TVPlus rating which I've already stated is not how rankings should work. Inflating your TVPlus rating will simply result in increasingly difficult matches until you reach the point that you're going to lose every match.

The ranking formula should apply penalties for concessions made, which means that using concessions to attempt to avoid losses should result in a longer-term decrease in ranking than simply losing a match. That would mean the only "benefit" you'd see by using concession to "pick" matches is an eventual inability to win any, and a terrible ranking.
As I understand it, it's per team, so you could get a great coach win record by remaking a team every game. It would also be meaningless.
Again, you need to get out of the W/D/L mindset when we're talking about a TVPlus environment. Your TVPlus rating is the measure of your team+skill. If we wanted an overall "coach TVPlus rating" it wouldn't be "total wins - total losses" it would be "average or median TVPlus rating across teams". Remaking your team over and over would result in a low and reasonably unchanging overall TVPlus rating.
at the same time , some coach can be excellent with some races and really crap with other. Flatening all their W/L without comparing wich team , and vs who they played would not be fair either and would , in my opinion , have no sense. You play ogre you do not expect to have a massive positive Win ratio and if you are the best with amazon for example , then it would automaticaly drop your tv++ as you would accumulate losses with the ogre . You can see an exploit right here. If it is applied per race you are reducing that effect . May be the way is to start a tv++ from 5 game effectively played per team to start evaluating their real level (i gave a random number )
Again, a ranking thing not a TVPlus thing. The answer is that rankings should not be based on simple comparison of TVPlus rating, but rather be based on a per-roster comparison... that means that, per your example, an Ogre team's ranking is not based on comparing its TVPlus rating with that of Skaven teams, but rather its TVPlus rating compared to Ogre teams. You'd be ranked on how good you are compared to the average Ogre team... and Skaven teams would be ranked on how good they are compared to Skaven teams.
Fingers crossed it isn't a complete muck up and that people take the time to understand why their 1300TV 10-0-0 team might be getting matched up with a 2000TV 25-30-10 team. Cyanide had better figure out a way to display why teams were matched up the way they were so people don't lose their minds when the aren't receiving any inducements - assuming it works close to that.
It'll depend on how they implement it. People should be fine in such an environment as they'll pretty quickly find that they're getting matches they have a chance of winning rather than constantly getting matches they're likely to lose. Ultimately, having the game "feel" fair is what will speak to people far more than math and logic.. but designing that system takes the latter.

In terms of converting an existing environment to TVPlus, they really shouldn't use existing win and loss records... that'd be a pretty rough adjustment for good teams and coaches. Instead, they'd need to either reset the wins and losses, or just add a new variable that starts at 0 and goes up or down by 1 for each new win or loss, and is used in the TVPlus calculation rather than the total wins and losses from pre-and-post TVPlus.
Friendly Reminder: Correlation does not equal Causation - tattoo it on the inside of your eyelids if it'll help.

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Lembocha
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Re: TVPlus for Dummies

Postby Lembocha » 08 March 2016, 15:35

Thanks for sharing this. I have one question though. Will the Cabalvision record be used to "measure" how good a coach is or will it be all games played? Because the way I play in some leagues is totally different from what I do in other more "competitive" ones.
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Re: TVPlus for Dummies

Postby TheSpydyr » 08 March 2016, 15:58

This is an excellent post that I think is much easier for people (admittedly like me) to follow as an introduction to TVPlus.

Regardless of our past interactions, as mentioned in the other thread I've always respected your work on this and for what it's worth I really wish Cyanide would have worked with you in particular when thinking of instituting a system like this.
Agree with this 100%. Thanks for taking the time to post this Voodoo. It definitely makes the TVPlus format a lot easier to understand.
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