Season 3 ranking update

Everything dealing with the video game developed by Cyanide!
User avatar
dode74
Posts: 7016
Joined: 11 December 2008, 11:18
Location: Nr. Reading, UK
Contact:

Season 3 ranking update

Postby dode74 » 06 January 2017, 20:40

Formula

RankPoints = Win% * (CrossPoint + (1 - CrossPoint) * (1-((1-MIN(Limit, GamesPlayed)/Limit)^x)) + NonConcedeBonus

where x = log (a/(1-CrossPoint)) / log(1-(Target/Limit))

Crosspoint = 0.4
Limit = 42
NonConcedeBonus = (played - concede) * 0.02 - NB the "concede" should be games you conceded, and I am not sure if this is in yet or if concede = 0 for the moment.
a = 0.05
Target = 28

RankChartS3.png
RankChartS3.png (23.69 KiB) Viewed 1919 times


WTF?
For those who looked at that and went "wtf?" here's a summary:

You are basically rated on your win percentage (win% = (wins + draws/2)/games played) BUT...

1. You don't get the full "value" of that win percentage until you hit 42 games (one game per day). The amount you get is scaled down with the games played (almost - there is a slight adjustment from the linked formula) in accordance with the curve you saw such that if you only play 28 games (4 games every 7 days) you get 95% of that value. That is in order to encourage people to keep playing their team and not sit on good but low games played records.
2. There is a bonus for playing more games. It's not much - 0.02 points per game played (bear in mind a 100% record would get you 100 points at 42 games) - but enough to create a difference between two records with identical win percentages and different games played.

So,
at 14 games you get ~76% plus 0.28
at 21 games you get ~87% plus 0.42
at 28 games you get 95% plus 0.56
at 35 games you get ~99% plus 0.70
at 42 games you get 100% plus 0.84
for every game thereafter you get an extra 0.02

Example records:
48-0-12 = 80% win% * 100% modifier + (60 matches) 1.2 = 81.2 points
35-2-7 = 81.81% win% * 100% modifier + (44 matches) 0.88 = 82.69 points
14-2-0 = 93.5% win% * 79.7% modifier + (16 matches) 0.32 = 75.06 points
24-2-4 = 83.33% win% * 96.47% modifier + (30 matches) 0.6 = 80.99 points

How does S3 compare with S2?

These are the top 40 from S2 (all teams, so even those with lots of concessions or which were booted are included here - I filter those out at a later stage for qualifying) and put them in rank order by the S2 ranking system and by the S3 ranking system:
S2vS3.png
S2vS3.png (39.82 KiB) Viewed 1919 times

One of the complaints about S2 was that there were some very low games played records which were ranking very high - the 14-0-0 teams are a case in point. You can see those teams don't even make the top 40 in S3, and the 16-2-0 teams are much lower ranked too.
Of course, there may be teams that you, individually, would choose to put in a different order. Ranking of this sort is by necessity subjective since we are looking at consistency, which is a combination of playing games and winning them.
Last edited by dode74 on 06 January 2017, 21:09, edited 1 time in total.
Image

User avatar
dode74
Posts: 7016
Joined: 11 December 2008, 11:18
Location: Nr. Reading, UK
Contact:

Re: Season 3 ranking update

Postby dode74 » 06 January 2017, 20:42

But it's weird in-game right now!

Yes, I know. No idea why as I just calculated a set of rankings and the in-game ones are VERY different to what they should be under either S2 or S3's system. Hopefully Cyanide will work this out soonest.
Image

Gerbear
Posts: 16
Joined: 05 July 2016, 10:43

Re: Season 3 ranking update

Postby Gerbear » 06 January 2017, 21:38

I gotta say that this formula is looking much more promising than the season 2 formula. it seems like playing more games will a lot of impact untill about 25 games play, instead of something like 15 games played in season 2, and that playing more will have an affect (that isnt so tiny that can be ignored outside of some rare cases of 100% win rate) untill about 42 games, instead of 30.

Both of these combined will still leave you restarting your team for a stong winstreak start with most races, but it will probably allow more room for losses, cause with a larger amount of games, the randomness of matchmaking and of in game dice will affect everyone evenly.

The main problem i felt with the season 2 formula is that a loss was insanely punishing, especailly the races that have a strong start. I agree that a 100% win streak is nearly impossible even with 20 games, but if matchmaking matches you with weaker caoches (Because of playing hours and luck) and you manage to not get many games where dice just says no to everything you attempt, you will be able to reach the point of 15-20 games with 2 losses or less (when a darw = 0.5 win + 0.5 loss) which is very very tough to beat unless someone gets luckier.

I know that coach level does affect how easy it will reach a good record, but in a small sample size randomness of unskill-related things have more impact, and i think that attempting to increase the games played of teams by ~10 games will mean that records will be more based about skill, and less about the fact that a blood bowl game got a huge amout of ingame, and out of game, randomness involved in it.

seriousjest
Posts: 482
Joined: 09 May 2016, 18:30
Facebook: seriousjest
Twitter: seriousjest
Contact:

Re: Season 3 ranking update

Postby seriousjest » 06 January 2017, 23:01

Very well-explained, Dode. Thank you for all of the work you put into this, even during difficult personal times.
PS4 Champion Cup co-admin, co-host of "Live from the ManCave!!!," and your favorite Blood Bowl coach's favorite Blood Bowl coach

Image

User avatar
mordrek
Posts: 188
Joined: 10 June 2009, 09:27

Re: Season 3 ranking update

Postby mordrek » 07 January 2017, 00:31

Looks great!
New ranking is now in use on http://www.mordrek.com/goblinSpy.
Due to reasons, this will affect all past and present competitions.

Mojo_Nova
Posts: 40
Joined: 17 May 2016, 03:58

Re: Season 3 ranking update

Postby Mojo_Nova » 07 January 2017, 01:36

If losses aren't as punishing in season 3 as they were in season 2 then that HAS to be a good thing.

Also, before the vultures descend and tear this a new one, I'd just like to say I for one appreciate the work and the constant tweaking of the system to find something that works for everyone. Not alot of leaderboards online are treated in this way and I find it refreshing. Nice job.

SlyAnimal
Posts: 12
Joined: 19 October 2015, 19:04

Re: Season 3 ranking update

Postby SlyAnimal » 07 January 2017, 04:03

I really like this new ranking system, the system seems to just be improving every time that you re-evaluate it.

The problems with the ingame rankings are a bit of a bummer (Morderk's Goblinspy has me currently at 19th, but I'm 248th ingame), but I'm sure Cyanide will fix them, and if not then the end of season rankings won't be calculated by the ingame rankings?

Plenty of time until the end of the season anyway.

Also changing it so that the Champions League isn't the default league has made this season a lot more challenging. I don't think I've had any opponents concede against me so far, and almost every game I've had so far has been a close one (Which is making me re-evaluate the win percentage that I'll probably need to aim for over 42 games, compared to the lofty ambitions I had last season).

seriousjest
Posts: 482
Joined: 09 May 2016, 18:30
Facebook: seriousjest
Twitter: seriousjest
Contact:

Re: Season 3 ranking update

Postby seriousjest » 07 January 2017, 06:24

Does Mordrek's GoblinSpy reflect the new ranking system for S3?
PS4 Champion Cup co-admin, co-host of "Live from the ManCave!!!," and your favorite Blood Bowl coach's favorite Blood Bowl coach

Image

User avatar
dode74
Posts: 7016
Joined: 11 December 2008, 11:18
Location: Nr. Reading, UK
Contact:

Re: Season 3 ranking update

Postby dode74 » 07 January 2017, 08:42

seriousjest wrote:Does Mordrek's GoblinSpy reflect the new ranking system for S3?

It does after the work he did last night.
Image

Wolfbanesons
Posts: 137
Joined: 08 November 2009, 09:22
Location: Malta

Re: Season 3 ranking update

Postby Wolfbanesons » 07 January 2017, 13:09

Great work Dode. Thanks for your dedication.

I'm really enjoying the championship league


Return to “General”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests