Legendary edition: please take out bribe stall for dwarves

Share your ideas and Suggestions about Blood Bowl 2.
wdanjou
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Re: Legendary edition: please take out bribe stall for dwarves

Postby wdanjou » 17 February 2017, 21:44

All I'm getting from this thread is that Voodoomike really likes to be mean and argue.

Sure, it looks like Miraskadu walked into a mistake, and I was glad when Voodoomike came in and corrected him because we got to find out that Miraskadu's claims were based on apparently weak data. Then I was expecting to see Voodoomike's impressive, superior data, and it never came. Instead, it just seemed like Voodoomike is under the impression that Miraskadu's shortcomings stem from malice or like voodoomike just literally cant be bothered to deal with any of this(which we know isn't true after a certain amount of posts). For all the effort of explaining how amazing and strong at statistics you are, Voodoomike, and arguing over why you shouldnt have to share your data or how you arrived at the conclusion you arrived at because anyone reading it would be too stupid to understand it, and then arguing about arguing(....), if you had made half that effort trying to show your statistics and explain them and why they mean what you think they mean, you could have probably come away with a pretty well constructed and maybe even somewhat educational post,if not for Miraskadu, then for others reading this post later who might be wondering, maybe a year or more from now "Is the bribe stadium OP for Dwarfs?".

Even if I or anyone else reading it doesn't understand it, posting it opens you up to criticism from someone who DOES understand it coming along and criticizing it, so there's a level of collateral there which leads me(or anyone else reading it who doesn't just take what people say at face value) to have some faith in your stance until such time time that someone may come along who understands it well enough and might disagree with it. Rather than just this attitude that comes off as 'I'm right, you're too dumb to understand why, believe me or you're dumb' which is like...pretty obviously not helpful and a little incendiary. Im just saying, Voodoo, it doesn't seem to serve your best interests never mind anyone else's. That is, unless, you just like being mean and arguing for the sake of arguing, and don't consider that to be a waste of your time.

Just putting in my two cents as someone who literally doesn't care about the dwarf issue one way or the other and was just reading how things in this thread kind of devolved into bickering.

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VoodooMike
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Re: Legendary edition: please take out bribe stall for dwarves

Postby VoodooMike » 17 February 2017, 22:21

wdanjou wrote:All I'm getting from this thread is that Voodoomike really likes to be mean and argue.

That's reasonably accurate... at least the argue part. I don't think I'm particularly mean to people, but I can be :)

wdanjou wrote:Instead, it just seemed like Voodoomike is under the impression that Miraskadu's shortcomings stem from malice or like voodoomike just literally cant be bothered to deal with any of this(which we know isn't true after a certain amount of posts).

I like to argue, but what I can't be bothered to do is run numbers for someone who insults me. How often do YOU go out of your way to do work for people who insult you?

Miraskadu's shortcomings don't come from malice, they stem from overconfidence in his ability, and then from a burning desire to avoid embarrassment. I can absolutely be bothered to pick on people who make mistakes and can't just admit to them outright without an endless stream of excuses and recriminations.

wdanjou wrote:Rather than just this attitude that comes off as 'I'm right, you're too dumb to understand why, believe me or you're dumb' which is like...pretty obviously not helpful and a little incendiary.

Close... it's "I'm right and you lack the understanding of the topic to know why" and "believe me or be wrong... but I'm not overly concerned which you go with". It can be considered incendiary, but really it's just epistemological elitism. I know better and I know I know better... that bothers some people, but the reason for that is their own low self-esteem. I know some people know better than I do on other topics, and when those topics arise and they disagree with me I simply accept that they very likely are right.

wdanjou wrote:Im just saying, Voodoo, it doesn't seem to serve your best interests never mind anyone else's.

Sure it does. At this point you know that the Ref Rest Area does, in fact, improve the win rate for Dwarf teams as compared to not having a stadium upgrade. Anyone who wanted more information could have asked for it and received it, assuming they didn't lead with insults of some sort.

So lets say Robinzxro wanted to know how much of an effect the upgrade was having on win rates... he could have asked and I'd have happily run the numbers and told him. On the other hand Miraskadu... and someone like you... don't have that option... at least not without suffering random depredations as a reward for your attempts at lecturing me until you simply give in and then say "pretty please with whipped cream and a cherry on top?" (literally.. those words) without any backhanded attempts at retaliation or face-saving.

wdanjou wrote:That is, unless, you just like being mean and arguing for the sake of arguing, and don't consider that to be a waste of your time.

I do, in fact, like being mean to and arguing with people who decide they want to "tell me how it is". I don't consider it a waste of my time. I multitask :)
Friendly Reminder: Correlation does not equal Causation - tattoo it on the inside of your eyelids if it'll help.

Fashbinder
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Re: Legendary edition: please take out bribe stall for dwarves

Postby Fashbinder » 17 February 2017, 22:51

Hey mike,

how much of an effect is the bribe upgrade having on win rates?

Are you able to factor in coach skill? EG With a dataless presumption i think that less experienced coaches take elf grass or astro-granite and therefore if the search parameter was "All astrogranite win %" i'd say it would be lower than average, not because the enhancement is bad but because the coach who picked it is.

Similarly would have to check if it was a dwarf with a secret weapon or just some guy who likes to throw a foul every turn.

Wouldn't it be great if you had the data for 100 players playing deathroller dwarfs for 100 games against every race?

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VoodooMike
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Re: Legendary edition: please take out bribe stall for dwarves

Postby VoodooMike » 18 February 2017, 00:00

Fashbinder wrote:how much of an effect is the bribe upgrade having on win rates?

Not going to let me have any more fun with Miraskadu? fine.. fine..

If we look at the data for dwarf teams playing home games (so.. using only their own upgrades) that did not end in concession, we find that the Referee Rest Area is between a 3.8% and 7% improvement over having no upgrade at all (at the 95% CI). That range will change, of course, if we start narrowing our parameters or selecting alternative post-hoc tests.

So.. noteworthy, but probably well below the "overpowered" definition for most people.

Fashbinder wrote:Are you able to factor in coach skill? EG With a dataless presumption i think that less experienced coaches take elf grass or astro-granite and therefore if the search parameter was "All astrogranite win %" i'd say it would be lower than average, not because the enhancement is bad but because the coach who picked it is.

No, it does not take into account coaching skill... but then again there IS no measure of coaching skill that anybody can agree upon. I'm not sure, based on the discussions I've seen on the topic, that even smart and experienced people can intuit with great accuracy which stadium upgrades help which teams. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong... the logic they base it on is always reasonable.

In general we just assume that there will be plenty of variation in other factors, and that variation will cancel itself out and be accounted for in the general error. I don't think it's necessarily a safe bet that all the dwarf coaches that take the bribe enhancement are better than average coaches, or that the ones who take astrogranite are below average coaches. It's probably a mix, and barring an ability to tell them apart, we can't assume otherwise.

Fashbinder wrote:Similarly would have to check if it was a dwarf with a secret weapon or just some guy who likes to throw a foul every turn.

We don't have that information. Likewise, we're seeing a positive effect anyway, so whatever those coaches are doing it's helping them win games.

Fashbinder wrote:Wouldn't it be great if you had the data for 100 players playing deathroller dwarfs for 100 games against every race?

I guess.. though it wouldn't be as useful in contrasting deathroller vs. fouler teams unless we also had 100 vs 100 games of people playing dwarf without deathrollers!
Friendly Reminder: Correlation does not equal Causation - tattoo it on the inside of your eyelids if it'll help.

Fashbinder
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Re: Legendary edition: please take out bribe stall for dwarves

Postby Fashbinder » 18 February 2017, 00:20

VoodooMike wrote:If we look at the data for dwarf teams playing home games (so.. using only their own upgrades) that did not end in concession, we find that the Referee Rest Area is between a 3.8% and 7% improvement over having no upgrade at all (at the 95% CI).


Whats the difference between those with an (any) upgrade vs those with none?

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VoodooMike
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Re: Legendary edition: please take out bribe stall for dwarves

Postby VoodooMike » 18 February 2017, 01:07

Fashbinder wrote:Whats the difference between those with an (any) upgrade vs those with none?

It depends on the upgrade... some result in a higher win%, some in a lower%... if we looked at them as simply two groups (with and upgrade vs. without one) we'd have the two directions canceling each other out to an extent. That's why we don't do that ;)
Friendly Reminder: Correlation does not equal Causation - tattoo it on the inside of your eyelids if it'll help.

Fashbinder
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Re: Legendary edition: please take out bribe stall for dwarves

Postby Fashbinder » 18 February 2017, 02:15

Really? able to paste em? Id assume those with stadiums were winning teams who had the funds and those without would be fresh teams or teams that lose and dont have the funds. Regardless would be interesting to see which stadiums perform worse over how much of a sample size.

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VoodooMike
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Re: Legendary edition: please take out bribe stall for dwarves

Postby VoodooMike » 18 February 2017, 04:36

Fashbinder wrote:Id assume those with stadiums were winning teams who had the funds and those without would be fresh teams or teams that lose and dont have the funds.

There's not that big a difference in the accumulation of funds between winning and losing teams. There's a less than a 1% variance difference in win rates between dwarf teams with or without stadium upgrades.

Fashbinder wrote:Regardless would be interesting to see which stadiums perform worse over how much of a sample size.

Don't try to eyeball sample sizes - keep in mind that they are part of the calculations that determine the confidence intervals and test statistical significance.

If we look at only home games (and thus, only games involving a dwarf team using its own upgrade) we don't find any statistically significant instances of negative effects. If we expand it to cover away games too... meaning not just their own upgrades but also when they play on someone else's, we find four with a significant negative effect: Astrogranite, Elf Grass, Magician's Shop, and Magic Dome.
Friendly Reminder: Correlation does not equal Causation - tattoo it on the inside of your eyelids if it'll help.

Rifugio
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Re: Legendary edition: pleaseadd a grahic prize for tornamet wictors

Postby Rifugio » 20 February 2017, 00:54

Robinzxro wrote:It would be nice to have visual prizes(eg cups) in a coach page when the coachwins tournamets.......a sort of virtual shelf with cups on it. The page should be public.

Apart from this personal page, a .....golden star? .....should be added to the coach name logo to show he has won a tournament...has you know people like to show off and let other know that they are top players


A while back now but maybe something like this Trophy Rooms and Accolades - suggestion.
viewtopic.php?f=62&t=7614&p=69398&hilit=trophy+room#p69398


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