This game cheats...

This is the zone for the ones who prefer to play against the machine.
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Managarn
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Re: This game cheats...

Postby Managarn » 27 October 2011, 04:58

Read the whole thread Aceman. 3 game is a really low sample for any statistic.

Play more matches and you'll see that sometime bonehead kicks on the whole team on the same turn or that an ogre be completely retarded for a whole half.

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Darkson
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Re: This game cheats...

Postby Darkson » 27 October 2011, 06:13

There's no such thing as an "average" for boneheads (etc.), because there are times when the ogres don't need to roll (unstunning), times when they're not on the pitch, and time's when the team turns over before they even have a chance to fail the BH roll.
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Nope, I was talking about a 0TTD on a Blitz! using TTM.

Sigulf
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Re: This game cheats...

Postby Sigulf » 27 October 2011, 10:30

And then there are the times it goes the other way... A couple days ago, I played my first game with a Khemri team and found myself repeatedly getting into tight spots. Even though I knew it was begging for turnovers, I had three situations come up where passing (with Khemri!) seemed like my only option - the first was a Blitz-Ra (AG2) to a skeleton (AG2), the second was a skeleton (AG2) to a tomb guardian (AG1), and the third was a tomb guardian (AG1) to a Throw-Ra (AG2). All three times the thrower was in at least one enemy TZ and the catcher was also in a TZ the first two times. All three passes completed successfully with only one of them (the second) using a re-roll. And this is on a team where just picking the ball up off the ground (never mind actually throwing or catching it) is considered a major risk. Chance is just like that - very streaky.

(I've heard of one experiment where you have one person flip a coin 100 times and record the results while a second person "randomly" writes "heads" or "tails" 100 times. You can almost always tell which is which because the coin-flipper will almost always have streaks of five heads or five tails in a row, while the other person's "random" choices will be distributed much more evenly.)

Grumsch
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Re: This game cheats...

Postby Grumsch » 27 October 2011, 11:45

I have seen this live in a Casino. A 30 streak of red at roulette. Thousands of euros went down into the bank that evening. People are very very bad at handling with streaks. On the other hand if you read a little bit about "run-Tests" long runs are very improbable, runs which may seem totally undistributed are statistically well distributed:)

Domitian
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Re: This game cheats...

Postby Domitian » 27 October 2011, 14:12

I have seen this live in a Casino. A 30 streak of red at roulette. Thousands of euros went down into the bank that evening. People are very very bad at handling with streaks. On the other hand if you read a little bit about "run-Tests" long runs are very improbable, runs which may seem totally undistributed are statistically well distributed:)
... because somewhere on the other side of the world (Vegas?) a roulette table was kicking back perfect 1 to 1distribution at that time (equally unlikely). :D

acesman
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Re: This game cheats...

Postby acesman » 28 October 2011, 01:42

Read the whole thread Aceman. 3 game is a really low sample for any statistic.

Play more matches and you'll see that sometime bonehead kicks on the whole team on the same turn or that an ogre be completely retarded for a whole half.
I did read the whole post, and the sample is not three games, it is 16 turns times 5 games times (at least) 5 chances (16X5X5) = at least 400 samples, not enough for a statistically significant sample (1500 samples), but not insignificant. But my recollection may be a bit colored, so I will watch and keep my mind open. I still (usually) win my games, so I cannot complain, and I was more interested if there was a bug reference the skills (Bonehead/Bloodlust) than an overall cheat by the AI. Probably posted in the wrong area.

Grumsch
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Re: This game cheats...

Postby Grumsch » 28 October 2011, 08:25

I have seen this live in a Casino. A 30 streak of red at roulette. Thousands of euros went down into the bank that evening. People are very very bad at handling with streaks. On the other hand if you read a little bit about "run-Tests" long runs are very improbable, runs which may seem totally undistributed are statistically well distributed:)[/quote

... because somewhere on the other side of the world (Vegas?) a roulette table was kicking back perfect 1 to 1distribution at that time (equally unlikely). :D
What i wanted to say is : Most people have No feeling for probabilities because they are not obvious even at lower levels "if i keep tossing this coin sometime there has to show a head". An ininite strike is really unlikely but it could happen. .there is also No computer able to create "perfect" random numbers distributions. Most people would say the coin is a hoax or you throw influencing the coin toss.

Sigulf
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Re: This game cheats...

Postby Sigulf » 28 October 2011, 09:31

"if i keep tossing this coin sometime there has to show a head". An ininite strike is really unlikely but it could happen.
An infinite streak of tails would be infinitely improbable, by definition. And, as we all know from the research that went into building the Heart of Gold, anything which is infinitely improbable is actually very likely to happen almost immediately.

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dode74
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Re: This game cheats...

Postby dode74 » 28 October 2011, 09:48

No computer able to create "perfect" random numbers distributions
This is true, but the RNG produces a better distribution than most dice -> http://www.dakkadakka.com/wiki/en/That% ... is_of_Dice
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Grumsch
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Re: This game cheats...

Postby Grumsch » 28 October 2011, 10:28

That is true - i never wanted to tell anything else.


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